PAGCOR Chairman Outlines 2026 Gross Gaming Revenue Projections Amid External Pressures
Alejandro Tengco, who serves as Chairman and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, provided details on expected shifts in the country's gross gaming revenue for 2026 during recent statements covered by industry media, and these comments centered on a possible reduction reaching as high as 19 percent compared with the record levels achieved in 2025.
Breakdown of the Revenue Forecast
The projected range for 2026 sits between 320 billion and 350 billion Philippine pesos, which converts to approximately 5.20 billion to 5.69 billion US dollars, whereas the 2025 total reached 396.1 billion pesos or about 6.44 billion US dollars, and Tengco presented these figures as the baseline for understanding the anticipated contraction that could unfold over the course of the year.
Those following the sector note that the calculation reflects a direct year-over-year comparison, which positions the upper end of the decline at the 19 percent mark when measured against the prior year's performance, while the lower portion of the range suggests a somewhat moderated drop depending on how various offsetting elements develop throughout 2026.
Primary Influences Cited in the Statement
Tengco attributed the main drivers of this outlook to ongoing developments in the Middle East, which have begun to affect consumer spending patterns, and this impact appears most pronounced among lower-income groups that participate in online gaming activities, with the conflict creating broader cost pressures that ripple through discretionary expenditures in the Philippines.
Additional context from the remarks highlights how an earlier separation of electronic wallets from gambling platforms has added to these dynamics, since that de-linking reduced certain transaction pathways that previously supported online play, and the combination of these elements creates a layered effect on overall revenue generation across both digital and physical segments of the market.
Potential Mitigating Factors for Land-Based Operations
While the forecast incorporates downside risks tied to global events and payment adjustments, Tengco also referenced improvements in tourism inflows, including increased arrivals from China, as elements that could provide balance for land-based casinos in particular, since visitor growth often translates into higher foot traffic and table game activity at integrated resorts and standalone facilities.
Observers note that this tourism angle stands apart from the online segment pressures, creating a divergence where physical venues might experience steadier performance if international travel continues its upward trajectory through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, and the statement frames this as a counterbalance rather than a complete offset to the projected overall decline.
Timing and Context of the Remarks
The comments emerged in early June 2026, a period when industry participants were assessing mid-year trends and preparing forward-looking models, and Tengco's assessment integrates both macroeconomic signals from abroad with domestic regulatory changes that had taken effect in prior periods, resulting in a composite view of how these threads intersect for the Philippine gaming market.
Those tracking PAGCOR announcements recognize that such projections serve as planning tools for operators and regulators alike, since they inform budgeting, staffing, and expansion decisions across the regulated sector, while the emphasis on specific external catalysts like regional conflict and payment infrastructure shifts provides clarity on the variables most likely to shape outcomes.
Segment-Specific Considerations
Online gaming faces the sharper headwinds according to the outlined factors, particularly where lower-income participants encounter spending constraints linked to wider economic ripples from the Middle East situation, whereas land-based casinos receive mention for their potential resilience through tourism channels that bring higher-spending visitors who engage with slots, tables, and entertainment offerings.
The earlier e-wallet adjustments, which occurred before the current forecast period, continue to influence transaction volumes in the digital space, and this structural change interacts with the consumer spending effects to produce the combined outlook Tengco described, creating a scenario where recovery in one area does not automatically translate to uniform gains across all formats.
Conclusion
Tengco's statements deliver a data-driven snapshot of expected 2026 performance for Philippine gross gaming revenue, anchored in the contrast between 2025's record and the projected range, while identifying the Middle East conflict, e-wallet de-linking, and tourism improvements as the key variables that will determine the final results, and industry stakeholders now have these benchmarks to monitor as events unfold over the coming months.